2. While pretending to allow democratic traditions to
flourish in Ethiopia (for the consumption of his foreign supporters), he creates
hostilities between neighboring tribes, regions and religions and even generates
intra-tribal hostilities, so that his opponents get too busy fighting among each
other, leaving him to carry on with his grand scheme of dismantling Ethiopia! If
smart leaders like Birtukan emerge from the opposition camp, he is always ready
to eliminate them under the pretext of protecting the constitution, the law, and
the security of Ethiopia!
In order to stay in power against the forces of opposition that he has created
against himself, he has used his God-given ability to convince the powerful
supporters abroad (who are concerned about the security in the Horn of Africa)
that he is the only dependable ally to ensure stability in the region. Hence, he
convinced George Bush that he could eliminate the risk of terrorists taking root
in Somalia! So, in spite of Meles stealing the vote of Ethiopians in 2005,
George Bush, concerned about the national security of America, gave Meles all he
needed to fight the fundamentalists in Somalia! Today Somalia is in the grips of
the worst form of terrorists in its entire history - Al-Shabab, we are told, are
multiplying like rabbits in Somalia. Today, seeing the pathetic state of the
Ethiopian opposition, the Obama Administration whose concern is same as that of
George Bush, will continue supporting the Meles regime in the effort to control
terrorists in the region so that they won't be a threat to America!
Meles' conduct with regards to relationship with Sudan - where Ethiopian
territories are given gratis to Sudan; the recent accord between Sudan and the
"State of Tigray"; the agreement between Ethiopia and Egypt to harness the Nile
for mutual benefit; the large tracts of Ethiopian land given to Egyptian
companies for agricultural developement behind the backs of the rest of the
nations of the Nile Basin and in contravention to the mutually agreed upon
document whose signatories are the Nile Basin countries, all point to the
sinister scheme by an arrogant dictator who is dismantling Ethiopia, while
simultaneously developing firm security for the nation of the Tigray with
new-found brotherly-nations of Sudan, Arabia and now Egypt (a nation which has
had a strangle-hold on Ethiopia with regards harnessing the Nile for the
livelihood of Ethiopians)!
The question is, if Meles is so secure in his position to implement whatever he
wants in Ethiopia irrespective of what any other Ethiopian thinks, why even
bother to talk to the "opposition leaders" ahead of the "2010 elections"?
I believe the reason is that Meles is at his weakest point
since he took power in Ethiopia, and realizing his vulnerability and thinking
way ahead of his dumb opponents as usual, is putting in place procedures which
will lull his opponents into believing that he is serious about conducting a
free and fair election this time round! By the time they realize that the scheme
is an action replay of the 2005 charade, it will be too late, and this time
around he will execute his plan in such a way that there will be no fuss such as
the one which followed the 2005 election! To expect Meles will conduct a free
and fair election is a terribly misplaced belief by people who are either not
concerned about what happens to Ethiopia if they fail to dislodge him, or simply
ignorance by people who have failed to learn from lessons of the past!
Why do I say Meles is at his weakest? Here are my reasons:
1. Ethiopians distrust him more than ever.
2. A large section of the population believe the true
leader for the cause of all Ethiopians is the woman in Meles' jail today. As
long as he holds her in jail, he knows he is extremely vulnerable, but letting
her out of jail at this juncture is even more dangerous for his survival, so he
is buying over her former colleagues to minimize the impact of her imprisonment
on his own survival. Unfortunately for Ethiopia, the likes of Hailu Shawel have
3. The Ogaden has been destroyed by the Meles regime, but
that has only strengthened the determination of the ONLF against him, and
furthermore the Al-Shabab which Meles has helped create and strengthen with his
invasion of Somalia, will not hesitate to give the ONLF a brotherly helping
hand. Meles, on the other hand, has no good-will in the country and he is
unlikely to get a blank check from Obama given his dismal failure to dislodge
the fundamentalists in Somalia last time round.
4. He has parcelled out large tracts of arable land in
Ethiopia to the nations which have, hitherto, been the natural enemies of
Ethiopia including Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and now the erstwhile arch-enemy -
Egypt. This certainly alienates Ethiopian patriots.
5. While Eritrea, given its current relationship with the
world community is not in a position to pose direct threat to Ethiopia, it
harbors most of Ethiopia's armed opposition organizations, and if they launched
armed struggle from different directions, Meles will not have the ability to
withstand such an onslaught!
6. Wedged between Ethiopia to the south, a hostile Eritrea
to the north and an unpredictable ally to the west, Tigray will not be able to
give Meles the kind of safe sanctuary he will need if the going gets tough in
Ethiopia, and this fact must have been obvious to him from the moment he and
Isayas Afewerki decided to mutilate Ethiopia.