Ask now; praise later. What's the motive of Seye Abraha?

By Ebissa Ragassa (Ph.D.) / Jan 26, 2008
Modern Ethiopian politics is an illusion created to confuse and fool the mass through many possible ways of event control. This is a new method that the public has not been aware of yet; it is through controlling events (from the local to the national levels) that the TPLF employees manipulate the Ethiopian peoples. A false event is implanted by the government to create a chaotic state; when the public gets confused and becomes desperate for help, it runs back to the government and accepts any deals the government slaps on the table. In the process, freedom, progress and critical thinking are sacrificed, and the citizens become blind followers.

Over the last seventeen years, the Ethiopian peoples have become immune to TPLF’s usual propaganda and imprisonments, and the peoples no longer buy TPLF's ethnic divide-and-rule tactics. The TPLF regime has used up almost all of the cards of manipulation to stay in power deceitfully; it must think of something new and fresh that the public is not aware of yet. This new and fresh method is manipulation through controlled events or manufactured events to divert the public’s attention from the regime's corrupt nature.

Now have you seen any change since TPLF took power? We hear news, elections, economic boom, and federalism, yet nothing tangible has happened. That’s because Meles has put the peoples of Ethiopia on a treadmill, which has given them a false impression of running forward while going nowhere.

Controlling an event is a new technique that we will witness more often in the coming years in world politics. In the past human beings did not control events, only their responses to the events, so, in a way, events were not man-made; they were considered natural phenomena. Now imagine the situation in Ethiopia ; especially, the events of the last seventeen years were a series of man-made controlled events. It is a trick; THE WHOLE THING IS A TRICK. Like a person running on a treadmill, they sweat and waste their energy thinking they are getting somewhere, but yet they have not moved a foot. Now have you seen any change since TPLF took power? We hear news, elections, economic boom, and federalism, yet nothing tangible has happened. That’s because Meles has put the peoples of Ethiopia on a treadmill, which has given them a false impression of running forward while going nowhere. It is these controlled events that we must predict. What is TPLF’s next move? What card can Meles play now? What card has he not played? And, our most important focus should be on what cards he has not played yet.

Controlled events shape the public opinion or manipulate the mood of the peoples. It is through controlled events that the tempo of the peoples are raised or lowered as desired by the regime for its own end. When Meles wishes, he initiates a war with Eritrea for no apparent reason; when the public attention shifts to his favor, he buys himself another two to three years before redesigning his next plan. When that game gets old, he preoccupies the public by increasing the conflict and persecution on Oromo people and other ethnic citizens - now the public faces another controlled drama. He goes ahead and brings an end to this drama by releasing prisoners he has just incarcerated for no reason. By doing so, he is able to shift the attention of the peoples without resolving the underlying problems. By doing so, he is able to give the public false hope that change is on the horizon. By doing so, he is able to buy himself yet another two to three years of power.

A shocking event occurred within the last months; Seye Abraha was released from prison all of sudden. That was indeed a surprising event; our justice system must have been working for a man that was denied a due process. Yet he was released at a critical time when mass uprisings threatened the TPLF regime from all corners. Why now, why not 3 years ago or why not even 2 years from now, why now? While I am glad that Seye is no longer in prison and I am not questioning the deed of Meles, I am questioning the motive for his timely release. What is Meles’ motive? What is he distracting us from? How does he benefit from this? And how can a man of Seye's caliber be free to leave the country without being a risk to Meles and come to the Diaspora, without posing some security threat to TPLF, to preach the gospel of peace, unity, forgiveness and reconciliations?

My brothers and sisters here in the Diaspora have received this man with open arms, and have given him praises and admirations without any critical analyses, reasonings, or even posing basic questions. Many of our websites and journalists put the cart before the horse, that is “praise now, ask later” methodology, which is totally unreasonable, rather it should have been ASK NOW, PRAISE LATER. That was the problem that got Kinijit supporters in disarray for they prematurely praised without inquiring the leadership’s capacity. Remember a thirsty person in the Sahara Desert will pay any price for a cup of water, and we are rightfully so thirsty for peace and unity that we are willing to sacrifice our time and energy to receive peace and unity even if it means pushing aside our instincts that tell us: Wait a minute! There is something missing here.

I just like to pose the following series of questions to the public.

We desperately need peace and reconciliation, is Seye Abraha the messiah for such an important pure and morally just gospel of peace and reconciliation?

What are we reconciling? Is this a deal too good to be true?

Could Mr. Seye Abraha be groomed to replace Mr. Meles? Could this be the right publicity needed to further keep TPLF in power? Some of us have heard from reliable media outlets that Mr. Meles was claiming he would not be the next Prime Minister in coming election; even if we take him at his word, isn’t Mr. Seye the logical choice for TPLF to replace Mr. Meles?

Does it not make sense for Meles and his followers to make peace with their people and core supporters, and to give Mr. Seye a chance to rule for he had been the major architect of TPLF, for he has a vested interest in the organization, and, most importantly, for he commands greater respect than Meles among the Tigrean People?

Was not the reason Mr. Seye was imprisoned because he challenged Meles’ throne and created a division within the organization that left Meles without full support?

Is Mr. Seye round-two of TPLF's disguised-in-sweet messages of unity and reconciliation that play with our emotions?

For a high caliber person such as Mr. Seye, what are the conditions of his release?

Knowing Meles’ calculative, cunning political nature, what were the pre-arranged agreements that were reached between him and Seye?

I believe the timing and the message that Mr. Seye has brought to the Diaspora are interesting at a time when Meles is being challenged by Kinijit. Is it not interesting that Mr. Seye has become an advocate of the central ideology of Kinijit? What subtle impact does this create on the public perception to weaken Kinijit further?

What is most interesting is his famous phrase that the Diaspora idolizes the most: “without Oromos, there is no Ethiopia .” While on the surface, this statement is true; the subtle psychological message is, in fact, increasing ethnic tensions that his party is famous for. Let me explain.

"Without Oromos, there is no Ethiopia " is a loaded phrase that has many meanings. I will let the reader decipher most of the hidden meanings of this phrase, but simply what he is saying is that unless we stop the Oromos, Ethiopia is in jeopardy. This message is designed to further sensitize the ethnic tensions between the two major ethnic groups.

The biggest threats to TPLF are the progresses that have been made especially in the last couples of years, the formation of AFD and Kinijit’s message. While Meles is systematically working on dismantling kinijit, what he could not dismantle is the public awareness: the realization of Oromos, Amharas and other ethnic groups to work together and forge a united front. So, Mr. Seye comes out of nowhere, he inserts himself between Oromos and Amharas, and he appears to have the best interest for Ethiopia .

While we are starving and thirsting for the gospel of peace and reconciliation, we should rather wait for the rightful bearer of this message.

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